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Money market: NDF adjusts to CBR decision


Yesterday, the overnight swap continued declining, with the average rate down 14bp to 14.17%. Yet, in the end, the rate spiked, touching the CBR’s offer level. As a result, banks borrowed RUB 76.5bn in the FX swap window from the regulator and increased the volume of overnight repo to RUB 76.6bn. Today, the Treasury is offering RUB 100bn for two-week deposits, but this would not be enough to cover RUB 200bn of deposits maturing on Wednesday. As we expected, the NDF curve corrected upward, adjusting to the CBR’s rate decision. The front end moved up near 100bp, while 3M NDF closed up 140bp at 15.78%. Longer dated XCCY tenors shifted 40-50bp to the north. The IRS curve moved 10-20bp upward, though 3M MosPrime declined to 15.83% (-52bp). In light of this, the basis narrowed 30-40bp.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market, CBR

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