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Macro week ahead – supply stays afloat while demand sinks


In Russia this week, Rosstat is due to release its monthly package of economic statistics for February, starting with the data on IP and then proceeding with statistics on internal demand and the labour market. On Wednesday, the regular weekly CPI numbers are due. Otherwise, the CEEMEA focus will be on Turkey, where the CBRT is to meet tomorrow, as well as South Africa, which is due to release CPI numbers.

The balance of forces affecting demand and certain parts of supply in Russia is visibly skewed against the former. Recent statistics on auto sales, and the continuing deleveraging in the household and corporate sectors, paint a dark picture. In the meantime, industrial production is supported by several temporary factors (homebuilding, pipeline infrastructure, faster (and larger) budget allocations in defence) as well as the weaker currency. We expect the Rosstat print to show that the negative tendencies on the production side are mild, with IP around flat in YoY terms.

Vladimir Kolychev, Alexander Isakov
VTB Capital analysts


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