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RUB: in the tail of oil’s sharp correction


Yesterday, Brent remained under pressure: at the end of the day, it slipped 3.7% to USD 56.0/bbl, while in March so far crude is down 9.5%. In general, global risk sentiment has soured: for major equity markets, it was a defensive day reflecting a combination of factors ranging from the apparent stalemate in the Greek debt talks, fresh data highlighting persistent Chinese PPI deflation and pressure on US bank stocks ahead of today’s publication by the Fed of the second round of its stress tests. In addition, the US dollar posted a fresh up-leg to 12-year highs. In light of this, RUB declined 3.1% against US to 62.31. NOK slipped 2.1%, while the EM FX index was down 1.0% with ZAR and TRY closing 2.1% and 1.3% in the red, respectively. Hence, RUB traded generally in line with peers, especially bearing in mind that last week it visibly outperformed. We continue to think that with Brent in the USD 55-60/bbl range, USDRUB’s fair range is 60-63.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, oil

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