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Money market: overnight rates fall

 
10.03.2015

On Friday, the overnight FX swap slipped to 12.6% by the end of the day, while the weighted-average rate for the whole session was down 60bp to 14.99%. As we had expected, the injection of liquidity from the budget helped to bring money market rates closer to the CBR’s benchmark. On Friday, the banking system received RUB 160bn of Treasury deposits, while the consolidated budget continues to run a deficit, we estimate. Nevertheless, banks still borrowed RUB 167bn through the CBR overnight repo, but refrained from tapping the FX swap window. NDF rates declined 50-70bp on Friday, with the 3M NDF closing at 16.0%, and the 12M NDF settling at 14.3%. In our view, the NDF curve has already priced in a CBR rate cut of around 100bp at current levels, but at the same time, the shape of the XCCY swap curve remains inverted. In particular, 1s2s XCCY spread stand around -190bp. We suggest taking profits on NDF rate-receiving positions ahead of the CBR’s meeting this week and switching into a 1s2s steepener. As we have previously argued, current CBR monetary policy primarily favours steepener trades.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

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