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RUB: consolidation ahead of CBR’s policy meeting


Yesterday, RUB closed little changed at 60.35 amid low trading flows, as the Russian FX market was closed for the public holiday. However, on Friday, RUB performed decently, with USDRUB trading near 59.50 in the middle of the session; by the end of the day RUB had strengthened 0.8% to 60.40. Overall, in the last week RUB has appreciated 3.6% against USD, outperforming all peers. The EM FX index declined 2.0-2.3% for the same period, while NOK weakened 3.0%. Meanwhile, Brent spot was down 4.5% last week to USD 58.1/bbl and the nearest futures (CO1) declined 1.7% to USD 58.5/bbl. Exporters visibly increased their sales of hard currency last week, which was a key reason behind RUB's appreciation. Equally important, in our view, was the normalisation of the spread between the overnight FX swap rate and RUONIA, which has remained slightly above the zero mark since mid-February, thanks to USD liquidity injections by the CBR.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

ruble, CBR

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