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Local sovereign debt: non-residents continued selling


On Friday, the OFZ market opened mostly flat, but towards the end of the day the curve widened 30-35bp on the long end and 55-60bp in the belly. The main offering is still coming from foreign accounts. Overall, RFLB 28 (YTM 13.1%) lost 1.4pp, price-wise, while RFLB 19 7.50 (YTM 14.48%) declined 1.5pp in price terms. The curve is flattening (the 5s15s spread returned to -150bp, from -60bp in mid-February) as local support is stronger in the longest end. We think non-residents might continue closing positions this week as well, but the offer could start fading away gradually soon, we estimate.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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