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Money market: liquidity likely to improve with the beginning of a new month


On Friday, money market rates remained elevated. Overnight FX swap closed at 16.1%, while the weighted-average rate for the whole session printed at 15.67% (-22bp). RUONIA was likely in the range of 15.3-15.6%. However, February's taxes are over now, so the beginning of a new month is likely to bring some relief in terms of rouble liquidity. In addition, the Treasury is offering RUB 300bn in two deposit auctions this week; both would constitute a net liquidity injection. We expect the overnight rates to move closer to the level of the CBR's key rate. Meanwhile, on Friday, demand for the regulator's refinancing remained strong: banks secured RUB 90bn in the FX swap window and RUB 139bn in the overnight repo from the CBR. NDFs rates tightened on the front end, with 3M NDF down 20bp to 17.9%, while 12M NDF increased 30bp to 15.5%. Longer dated XCCY swap rates moved up 10-15bp as well. In contrast, the IRS curve declined 30-40bp, so the basis swap spread narrowed with the one-year rate closing at -100bp.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

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