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RUB: hand in hand with crude


Yesterday’s session saw fairly average trading flows, with total USDRUB turnover in the MICEX of USD 3.7bn. Brent crude regained its positions, closing 5.1% in the black at USD 61.3/bbl, so it looks like the USD 55-60/bbl range is a strong support level. In light of this, RUB gained 2.4% and closed at 61.42 against USD, so the post-Moody’s losses were completely pared. The EM FX index nudged down 0.2-0.4%, with TRY and BRL down 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively. Commodity-backed currencies traded on a stronger footing, with NOK up 0.6%, while AUD and NZD advanced 0.7-0.8%. As we have argued before, with average crude prices at USD 55/bbl, we see USDRUB in a range of 60-63 in the near term, but if oil stays at USD 60/bbl that could open up room for further appreciation.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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