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Money market: NDF curve steepens further


Yesterday, the MICEX’s overnight FX swap market was also closed. On Friday, the weighted-average overnight FX swap rate declined 20bp to 15.07%. RUONIA was around the same level, we believe. The banking liquidity situation remains comfortable, as we have previously highlighted: banks have plenty of free reserves thanks to budget spending, which helps release collateral. This week, tax payments are to put some additional pressure on the money market, but we expect the Treasury to increase its deposit offering. NDF front end rates tightened yesterday, despite weakness on the FX spot market. In particular, the 3M NDF closed down 37bp at 16.4%, while the 12M NDF declined 30bp to 13.97%. Meanwhile, longer-dated XCCY swap rates moved up 10-20bp. Hence, the 1s2s NDF/XCCY swap spread increased to -97bp. The IRS curve moved up only 10bp, so the basis swap had narrowed gradually.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market

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