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Money market: overnight FX swap nudged above 15


Yesterday, the weighted-average overnight FX swap moved up to 15.27%, while the closing level was 15.98%. Meanwhile, the rouble deposit rate likely stayed closer to the 15% level, and so the spread between the overnight FX swap and RUONIA has perhaps turned positive. Hence, injections of USD liquidity at CBR FX repo auctions are bearing fruit. However, today the CBR is to conduct an additional two 312-P FX refinancing auctions for a total of USD 5.0bn, which could further improve the balance with USD liquidity in the interbank market. In the meantime, the situation with rouble liquidity remains comfortable with banks running an about RUB 1.4tn balance on the CBR’s correspondent accounts, implying c.RUB 400-450bn in free reserves. In light of this, zero bids at the Treasury’s deposits auction yesterday barely raised an eyebrow, in our view. We think the spike in the overnight FX swap rate will prove temporary sooner rather than later, and it will gravitate towards the key rate level. NDFs rates tightened 15-20bp on the front end, with 1M NDF closing at 17.1%, while 6M NDF ended at 16.0%. At the same time, longer dated XCCY swap rates widened 10-20bp, meaning that curve steepening is continuing and has more room to go, in our view. The IRS curve was marked down near 30bp with the basis staying at -200-230bp.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market

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