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RUB: crude oil market correction weighs on RUB


Trading activity on the FX market was USD 4.3bn (MICEX), slightly above the average daily figures for the week. At the end of the day, the RUB had weakened 0.6% against USD to 61.9 following the downward move in the crude oil market. During the day, Brent traded 2.0% in the red, briefly dipping below USD 54.5/bbl. However, US crude inventories data showed the increase was lower than the market had feared, which fuelled some relief in the commodity market. Hence, at the end of the day, spot Brent actually closed 1.4% up at USD 59.3/bbl, while the nearest futures (CO1) ended just 0.5% down at USD 60.2/bbl. From Tuesday, Brent declined around 3.1%, but RUB actually firmed 2.2% in the same period. As we have highlighted previously, in the near term under an assumed crude oil price of USD 55/bbl, we think USDRUB should be trading in the 60-63 range. The EM FX index weakened near 0.2-0.3% against USD with TRY down 0.2%, whilst MXN and BRL tumbled 0.6-1.0%; NOK slipped 0.9%.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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