In Russia, this week starts with Rosstat releasing statistics on IP, internal demand and the labour market for January. These figures are then supplemented on Wednesday by the regular weekly CPI data. In CEMEEA, we await the January labour and IP statistics from Poland and CPI from South Africa.
In Russia, the January data is likely to bring further details about the scale of the contraction in economic activity.
We expect to see a significant drop in retail sales driven by a decrease in demand, as foreshadowed by the sharp drop in car sales. The negative effect of lower real wages on consumption is to be exacerbated by the seasonal decrease in labour demand, which might have pushed the unemployment rate above 5.5% (standing at 5.2% SA in December).
We do not expect any positive surprises from the IP as it returns to near zero after a robust print in December. As the effect from temporary factors (including ‘flight-from-RUB’ spikes in housing and durables sales) fades, military spending and pipeline construction are unlikely to offset the negative spillover from a sharp contraction in domestic demand on manufacturing. Early figures on freight turnover and electricity production also point to a range from near zero to a slightly negative change MoM.