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Money market: volatile overnight rates


On Friday, the situation with banking liquidity was stable, with the total balance of banks' correspondent accounts and deposits with the CBR standing near RUB 1.5tn. Meanwhile, banks borrowed RUB 168bn in overnight repo from the CBR, down from RUB 313bn the day before. However, that liquidity outflow was offset by the settlement of RUB 236bn at the State Pension Fund's deposit auction. Overnight FX swap was rather volatile on Friday: the weighted-average rate printed at 14.44% (+22bp), but at the end of the day it traded near 16.1% and some banks even secured RUB 13bn from the CBR in the FX swap window. To recap, during the previous days, the overnight FX swap traded closer to the CBR's deposit rate, which fuelled a widening of the negative spread between the overnight FX swap and RUONIA. NDF rates' price action was mixed. In particular, 1M NDF widened near 83bp to 18.4%, while 3M and 6M NDFs declined 80bp and 40bp, respectively, to 17.3% and 16.8%. Longer dated XCCY swap rates tightened 10-15bp. Overall, the XCCY/NDF curve continues steepening, with the 1s2s spread up to -140bp on Friday from -180bp the day before. We think receiving front end NDF rates looks reasonable, since we do not expect any issues liquidity wise, while the probability of rate hikes is rather low thanks to the stabilisation in the FX market. On the same grounds, steepener trades look interesting as well.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market, CBR

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