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RUB: minor correction

 
13.02.2015

Trading flows surged visibly yesterday, with USDRUB turnover in the MICEX at USD 5.0bn. However, the session was rather choppy as market participants were primarily focused on politics and the headlines from Minsk. In the morning, USDRUB spiked from 65.00 to 66.86, but slipped to 64.75 in just a matter of hours. Later, pressure on RUB increased once again and it weakened to 65.85 vs. USD, yet closed little changed to Wednesday at 65.19. However, RUB surrendered 0.7% against EUR (74.39). Brent bounced up 5.0% to USD 56.9/bbl, whilst EM traded stronger as well. The EM FX index firmed 0.7-1.0% against USD, with ZAR and TRY up 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, while BRL and MXN advanced 1.1-1.6%. However, we highlight that over the previous two days RUB had outperformed peers, so some correction now looks reasonable. At the same time, as we have argued before, with the current level of crude oil prices, and given the absence of negative news from Minsk, we think RUB has room to appreciate.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble, oil

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