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Weekly CPI – inflation slows to 0.6% reaching 15.6% YoY as of 9 February


According to Rosstat, CPI growth reached 0.9% during the first nine days of February, while the average daily price growth edged lower over the last week to 0.097%, from around 0.140% during the first week of the month. Component-wise, inflation last week was led by rice (+2.3% WoW), frozen fish (+1.9%), sunflower seed oil (+1.5%), and carrots (+3.1%).

Annual inflation accelerated to 15.7% YoY as of 9 February from 15.0% YoY at the end of January.

The detailed numbers show that part of the slowdown was due to the decline in growth of some of the previously quickly rising components, e.g. onions slowed from 4.7% to 3.1%, apples from 2.5% to 1.2% and tomatoes from 5.6% to 0.0%. Another reason was the one-off nature of ticket price growth, which was indexed the previous week.

These figures are consistent with our estimate of 16.5% YoY CPI growth for February, if the decrease in the run rate of inflation proves persistent. Looking beyond February, headline CPI might continue to accelerate until March or mid-April and peak at 17.0-17.2% YoY as the effects of the exchange rate pass-through to prices continues to fade. From then on we expect the rate of inflation to moderate, starting at the latest in May as the demand-pull factors start to weigh on inflation.

Vladimir Kolychev, Alexander Isakov
VTB Capital analysts

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