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Money market: NDFs widened, but overnight lower


Yesterday, CBR repo auction volumes declined RUB 100bn, but banks increased borrowing under the overnight standing facility by RUB 64bn. Meanwhile, the Treasury withdrew RUB 173bn from deposits. A new RUB 50bn deposit was announced for today, but even if banks take it in full, the volume of the Treasury’s deposits would decline further, to RUB 666bn, tomorrow. In addition, the State Pension Fund is conducting a RUB 236bn deposit auction today. Separately, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev yesterday signed off an order that allows the use of RUB 500bn from the Reserve Fund to cover budgetary outlays. Hence, we continue believing that fiscal expenditures will likely underpin the comfortable banking liquidity situation in the near and medium term. Meanwhile, the overnight FX swap closed at 12.6% yesterday, while the weighted-average rate printed at 14.58%. Nevertheless, NDF front-end rates widened 120-150bp on the back of early FX weakness, the sluggish oil performance and perhaps concerns about geopolitical risks. Hence, the 1M NDF moved up to 17.4%, while the 6M NDF closed at 17.0%. Longer dated XCCY swap rates moved up 15-25bp, meaning that the curve had flattened. In our view, the current spike is a nice selling opportunity in NDF rates, since we expect the overnight to remain below or close to key rate, while the probability of rate hikes in the near term is now low.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market, NDF

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