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Money market: overnight FX swap at upper end of CBR band


Yesterday, the total balance of banks’ correspondent accounts with the CBR declined, to RUB 789bn, as we had expected, amid the January-February averaging period drawing to a close today. Nevertheless, the combined volume of deposits and correspondent accounts remained near RUB 1.5tn. The State Pension Fund pulled near RUB 162bn from deposits, but the injection of 312-P funds offset the outflow. At that auction, banks borrowed RUB 769bn for three months at a rate of 15.25% (RUB 1.0tn was offered). Today, the Treasury withdraws RUB 163bn of deposits, but, as we have previously argued, this is unlikely to be a threat to the money market in the near term. Meanwhile, the overnight FX swap rate surged to 16%, while the weighted-average rate for the whole session was up 103bp from Friday 15.0%. Therefore, banks secured RUB 121bn from the CBR in the FX swap window in addition to RUB 403bn in overnight repo. However, again, in our view, this is just an illustration of poor interbank lending market efficiency: some banks are keeping almost RUB 700bn in CBR deposits, while others had to search every corner for liquidity to comply with the averaging regulation. Despite the higher overnight rate, NDFs tightened 60-90bp at the front end with 1M NDF closed at 15.96%, while 6M NDF ended at 15.43%. Longer-dated NDFs moved down 20-40bp. In our view, the current level of NDFs against the overnight market does not leave much room for further tightening. The IRS curve moved down as well, leaving the basis little changed.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market, CBR

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