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Money market: budget continues supplying liquidity


On Friday, the situation with banking liquidity did not change and remained rather comfortable thanks to the ongoing consolidated budget deficit. In addition, cash continues returning to the banking system. Both factors are performing the opposite of the historical seasonal patterns (see charts below). As a result, banks have the ability to cut the debt to the CBR, releasing the collateral base. In particular, on Friday the volume of overnight repo declined to RUB 180bn (-RUB 69bn), while the volume of 312-P narrowed to RUB 3.65tn (down RUB 380bn for the week). Tomorrow, the new averaging period kicks off, but banks have plenty of cash parked on deposits with the CBR, so we do not think the situation on the money market will change, i.e. rates are to stay below the CBR's key rate, as the first taxes only start next week. Hence, the overnight FX swap closed at 14.00% on Friday, but front-end NDFs widened 100-150bp, with 1M NDF closing at 16.6%, while 6M NDF ended at 16.3%. Longer dated XCCY swap rates moved up 20-40bp together with IRS.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

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