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Money market: overnight FX swap hits CBR’s bid


Yesterday, the overnight FX swap closed at 12.57%, i.e. the level of the CBR’s bid in the FX swap market, whilst the weighted-average rate for the whole session printed at 14.16% (-24bp). We think that RUONIA probably also moved down substantially, given that the overnight repo rate in the MICEX tumbled to 15% (-100bp), but most likely not to the same extent. Hence, the key question is how far the spread between overnight FX swap and RUONIA widened: if it crossed -100bp, this could highlight that on a marginal basis the cost of US Dollar liquidity exceeded the cost of rouble funds. On the other hand, the difference between offshore and onshore rates is within the normal range so far. The situation with rouble liquidity remains comfortable: yesterday, State Pension Fund deposits auction attracted only RUB 600mn in demand against RUB 59bn offered. All bids were covered at a rate of 16.1%, i.e. the minimum threshold. Meanwhile, as we supposed, the demand for standing overnight repo facility increased: banks secured RUB 333bn (+RUB 305bn). However, on a system-wide level liquidity is still ample as banks parked near RUB 800bn on the CBR’s deposits maintaining just RUB 960bn balance on correspondent accounts. The next averaging period only starts on 10 February, so banks can keep the volume of correspondent accounts comfortable even around or slightly below RUB 800bn, we estimate. NDF rates continued tightening yesterday, following the lower overnight. At the end of the day, 1M NDF closed at 15.65% (-86bp), while 6M NDF settled at 14.8% (-25bp). Simultaneously, longer dated XCCY swap rates widened 30-40bp, with two-year rates closing at 12.7%. Hence, the NDF curve steepened with the 3m12m spread up to -180bp (+20bp). In our view, the regulators are well aware of the potential negative consequences of a widening negative spread between the overnight FX swap and RUONIA, so we do not think that the situation of the previous months is going to be repeated. Hence, we think further dips in NDF rates would be an opportunity to pay it.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

money market, CBR

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