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RUB: pullback

 
05.02.2015

Yesterday’s session in the Russian exchange market ended in the red, as crude oil switched into the correction mode, which is hardly surprising after a few consecutive days of gains. In the end, Brent slipped 4.4% to USDS 53.2/bbl, whilst the nearest futures (CO1) declined 6.5% to USD 54.2/bbl. In light of this, NOK and NGN weakened 1.1%. In addition, the whole EM FX space was under pressure, with TRY down 2.7% against USD, MXN and BRL dipping 1.6-1.7% and ZAR retreating 0.9%. Against this background, RUB ended 3.9% in the red yesterday vs. USD at 67.9. In our view, if average crude oil prices in the coming weeks stabilise around USD 55/bbl, RUB has room for strengthening. However, the headline risks associated with geopolitics could constrain sentiment. In addition, we highlight that the marked drop of overnight FX swap rates could be a sign of mounting issues with the marginal access to the US dollar liquidity in the interbank market, which might have a negative spillover into the FX spot.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble, oil

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