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RUB: extending gains

 
04.02.2015

Yesterday, RUB continued trading on a stronger footing amid the further advance of crude oil prices: Brent ended 3.5% in the black at USD 55.6/bbl. At the end of the day, RUB firmed to 65.23 against USD (+4.8%). Meanwhile, NOK gained 1.8%, while other commodity-based currencies slightly lagged the momentum: AUD slipped 0.1% as the Bank of Australia cut rates, whilst NZD advanced 0.8%; NGN ended 0.3% in the red. The EM FX index closed 0.8-1.0% up: ZAR was 1.0% stronger and TRY rose 1.3%, while MXN and BRL rebounded 1.2-1.4%. Overall, RUB is trading near 6.9% weaker YTD, while crude oil is mostly flat for the same period. In addition, RUB has underperformed the EM FX index near 6.6% YTD. Hence, we suppose that RUB’s recovery has more legs to go, especially, given the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity markets – we find it encouraging that all commodities are bouncing.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble, oil

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