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Money market: debt to CBR continues narrowing

 
03.02.2015

Yesterday, banks’ total debt to the CBR under the 312-P facility declined RUB 188bn to RUB 3.8tn. Banks repaid near RUB 405bn of mid-term funding, but partially covered this with RUB 215bn borrowed up until one month. Perhaps, some banks decided to cut the relatively long 312-P funding in order to substitute it with funds that the CBR is going to provide at the next three-month 312-P auction on 9 February. In light of this, the total volume of correspondent accounts in the CBR declined to RUB 881bn, yet deposits surged to RUB 758bn. Hence, the combined amount even picked up slightly. However, given that the January-February averaging period is over soon, banks are still running plenty of free reserves. Meanwhile, the budget likely continued supplying liquidity to the system. The overnight FX swap closed at 14.2% yesterday, while the weighted-average rate printed at 14.99%. We think RUONIA was near the level of the key rate as well. NDF rates declined further. In particular, 1M NDF closed at 18.27% (-50bp), while 12M NDF narrowed to 15.1% (-50bp). The longer dated XCCY swap rate moved down 30-40bp as well. 3M MosPrime dropped 221bp to 18.55%, while the IRS curve re-priced 90-150bp lower on the front end. Thus, the basis narrowed 30-40bp to -220-250bp. We think it still looks interesting to receive front end NDF rates here, since the spread over the overnight FX swap looks too high by historical measures. In addition, we do not expect any issues with rouble liquidity in the near term, since the Ministry of Finance is likely to start using the Reserve Fund soon. We think 1M-3M NDF could trade at a 100bp spread over the overnight FX swap here.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
money market, CBR

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