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Russia: CBR policy meeting in focus


We expect the CBR to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 17% today. The extreme FX and interest rate shock continues to send waves of pain across the banking and real sector, arguing for policy easing. Encouragingly, there is tentative evidence that depositor behaviour is gradually normalising amid moderating FX volatility, while the run rate of inflation, although still at an unacceptably high level, has come off its extreme peaks. The CBR is likely to continue erring on the side of caution, we believe, and wait for more sustained stabilisation in depreciation expectations and moderation in the inflation run rate before it starts to ease gradually (for details see a separate note).

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts


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