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RUB: marginally weaker

 
29.01.2015

Yesterday, trading flows on the Russian FX market remained subdued: total USDRUB turnover was little above USD 3.0bn. However, these figures (i.e. average daily turnover around USD 3.0bn) have become the new normal for the FX market. At the end of the day, RUB slipped 0.4% against USD and closed at 67.76. During the session, RUB found some support in better oil prices – Brent had gained near 1.0% at one point – but toward the end, crude had fallen into the red. In particular, the Brent spot declined 0.6% to USD 46.3bbl, while futures moved down 2.3%. In light of this, NOK lost 1.3% against USD. Meanwhile, the EM FX index softened 0.3-0.4% vs. USD, with TRY down 0.9% to fresh lows, while MXN also slipped near 1.0%. Thus, on a relative basis, RUB’s performance was not that bad, in our view. We also highlight that RUB’s implied volatility is rapidly declining: at the moment, the 1M rate stands near 40%, while a couple of weeks ago it was 70%. Separately, we highlight that the FOMC, in a statement, maintained its "patient" stance on monetary policy. The committee noted downward pressures on inflation, as well as global economic risks. All FOMC voters backed the decision. Overall, the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting carried no surprises.

Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analysts

Tags:
ruble

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