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RUB: no relief in oil

Yesterday, trading flows remained subdued in the Russia FX market, with total MICEX turnover of just USD 2.6bn, well below the normal daily figure. The performance of crude oil remains the key focus for RUB traders: Brent declined 5.8% to USD 46.50/bbl, which was hardly encouraging for commodity-based currencies. Hence, NOK weakened 1.2% and NGN lost 1.4% against USD. In general, the EM FX index closed 0.3% in the red. RUB declined 1.7% vs. USD to 63.14. We highlight that the CBR conducted two FX repo auctions yesterday, offering USD 10bn for 12 months and USD 5.0bn for 28 days. Total demand was USD 322mn and USD 1.66bn, respectively, and all bids were fulfilled. Thus, total debt under FX repo increased from USD 20.25bn to USD 20.41bn, so we think that banks’ will have a fairly balanced USD liquidity position (at least in the near term).
Maxin Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst

oil, ruble

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