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RUB: following crude oil

Since the beginning of the year (we use 30 December as a reference point, i.e. the last trading day in the Moscow exchange) RUB has weakened 9.0% against US to 62.04 in a fairly illiquid market. Thus, trading flows over the last week were generally below USD 1.0bn due to the long New Year public holidays in Russia. Hence, the bulk of USDRUB trading was offshore. Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped about 10% YTD to the USD 49/bbl area, which was the main source of pressure on the Russian currency, we think. Separately, the 100bp Russia CDS-spread widening over the same period has also weighed on the Russian FX performance. At the same time, the EM FX index has firmed 0.3% against USD YTD, with ZAR and TRY up 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while MXN and BRL firmed 0.9%. However, NOK slipped around 3.0%.
Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst

ruble, oil

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