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RUB: still under the cosh


Yesterday, RUB lost near 1.6% against USD, having closed at 55.72. At the beginning of the day, USDRUB opened at 54.70, yet it spiked after the CBR’s monetary policy announcement. Furthermore, Brent started sinking and closed 1.5% down at 62.80, which spoiled the risk sentiment in the Russian FX market. However, NOK also reacted negatively, ending about 1.8% in red yesterday. Meanwhile, the EM FX index weakened 0.5-0.8% against USD, with ZAR and TRY losing 0.5-0.8%, while MXN and BRL slipped 1.4-1.5%. Hence, RUB traded broadly in line with commodity-based and EM currencies. Interestingly, during the day, USDRUB touched lows of 54.60 on a fairly large trading volume.

We believe that it might have been the CBR’s FX intervention, but at the same time we noted that exporters were relatively active in selling hard currency yesterday. Overall, the total turnover for the whole day came at USD 4.5bn, well above recent average daily figures, which were generally below USD 3.0bn.

Tatyana Zueva, Maxim Korovin
VTB Capital analyst


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