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Local sovereign debt: rebound

Yesterday, the OFZ market opened with aggressive bidding. Later there was some nice two-way trading flow. At the end of the day, the OFZ curve closed 40-45bp lower on the belly and long end, while front-end bonds tightened near 30bp in yield. Hence, RFLB 28 (YTM 12.40%) jumped up 1.8pp in price, while RFLB 19 6.70 (YTM 12.79%) ended 1.0pp stronger. During the day, price gains were even higher, but RUB’s weakness in the evening spoiled the risk sentiment in the bond market. We still think that, fundamentally, current levels in the long bonds look interesting, since we expect some visible disinflation next year coupled with subdued supply of long issues in the primary market.
Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst


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