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RUB: all eyes on the CBR now

Yesterday, RUB opened weaker with USDRUB trading near 54.40 for most of the session. However, in the second half of the day USDRUB spiked to 54.80-54.85. There was no respite in the oil price yesterday, as Brent fell to its lowest since 2009. OPEC said that demand for its crude was projected to be at its lowest since 2009 as well. Brent crude declined 3.4% to USD 63.75/bbl. Subsequently, NOK closed 0.5% weaker. However, the EM FX index ended the day 0.4% in the red, with ZAR down 0.7%, while MXN and BRL slipped 0.8-0.9%. Thus, at the end of the day RUB weakened 0.8% against USD (or 40% YTD). Today, the CBR’s policy meeting is of high importance: the market is waiting for some bold policy response to the FX volatility.
Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst


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