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Auto market — stabilisation continues


The Turkish light vehicle market increased 2% YoY in November to 80,621 vehicles, while YTD sales declined 14% YoY to 620,692 units, according to the latest data from ODD.

The improvement in November was primarily driven by the strong performance of the LCV market, which increased 38% YoY to 20,926 units, while passenger car sales declined 7% YoY to 59,695 units. In 11mo14, passenger car sales were down 15% to 477,277 units, while LCV sales declined 10% to 143,415 units. We note that the observable outperformance of LCVs can partly be explained by the more favourable base effect, as LCV sales declined significantly last year, while passenger car sales were on the rise. This trend is beneficial for Ford Otosan and Tofas, which have significant shares of LCVs in their sales mix.

Dogus Otomotiv remained the leader on the light vehicle market, with a 20.7% market share in January-November (vs. 18.4% a year ago). Its YTD sales have declined just 4% to 128,709 units, according to ODD data. Tofas' 11mo14 domestic light vehicle sales fell 15% YoY to 73,430 units, while its market share stood at 11.8% (vs. 11.9%). Ford Otosan's sales were down 24% YoY to 68,358 units, with its market share at 11.0% (vs. 12.4%). We note that Ford Otosan has been steadily recovering its market share this year having completed the transition of its model range in 1H14.

The November sales trend points to the continuing stabilisation of the Turkish auto market. However, we believe that the recent appreciation of Turkish automotive stocks has left no fundamental upside at current price levels.

Vladimir Bespalov
VTB Capital analyst

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