For individuals: Internet bank
Select your city:

VTB Bank call center

+7 (800) 200-77-99
+7 (495) 739-77-99
For general information and enquiries

RUB: did the CBR intervene?

Yesterday, RUB kicked off substantially lower on the back of the decline in the oil price. We also believe that in the morning banks covered household FX demand that accumulated over the weekend. This quickly pushed USDRUB up to 52.00 and to 52.50 within a matter of hours. After some brief consolidation, USDRUB spiked as high as 53.90, where the market discovered a decent offer. We estimate that someone sold near USD 1.2bn at these levels. Reuters and Bloomberg, citing some trades, reported that it was the CBR; however, no official confirmation or denial was forthcoming. The total trading flow in USDRUB was near USD 7.9bn yesterday, which is a rather decent figure, as previously the average daily flow was near USD 4-5bn. Looking at hourly statistics, turnover in the middle of the day looked controversial to the average intraday trading patterns of November, for instance. Hence, we do not rule out that it was actually the CBR. Official FX intervention figures are due to be revealed tomorrow. At the end of the day, RUB lost near 4.2% against USD (51.65) and weakened around 4.6% vs. EUR (64.51). Meanwhile, Brent crude oil bounced up 4.7% to 72.2 USD/bbl. The latter helped NOK firm 1.3% against USD. EM FX index closed nearly flat against USD with ZAR and TRY up 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, but offset by the sluggish performance of MXN and BRL. We therefore believe that RUB might pare some of its earlier losses today. However, apart from crude oil swings, pressure on the FX spot market might come from the mounting issues with USD liquidity.
Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst

ruble, dollar, euro

Back to the list

VTB group news subscribe
  • E-mail subscribe
  • RSS lent
Download the list of cities.....