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RUB: regaining ground

Yesterday, RUB firmed 2.2% against USD (44.87) and 2.0% vs. EUR (55.72). Overall, the rebound in crude oil prices over the last few days ahead of the OPEC meeting this week provided a positive background for RUB. In particular, yesterday NOK appreciated 0.4% vs. USD. In addition, exporters have finally increased the selling of hard currency, which resulted in increased trading volumes on the MICEX: yesterday’s turnover amounted to USD 6.9bn, while last week the average daily turnover was not higher than USD 4.0bn. To recap, today companies pay MET to the budget. Meanwhile, during the day the lowest print of USDRUB was about 44.45, but Brent later retreated off the day’s highs, fuelling some intraday correction in RUB. Looking forward, we think Russian FX trading is to remain volatile, especially if the outcome of OPEC’s meeting disappoints. However, we also highlight that RUB’s implied volatilities are gradually normalising, which could help the currency to strengthen.
Maxim Korovin, Tatyana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst


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