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RUB sell-off props up consumer spending, IP sustained strength

On Friday, Rosstat published its package of monthly statistics for October.
Our View: October saw both demand and output indicators somewhat stronger than we expected. Sharp RUB depreciation likely affected the ordinary behaviour of economic agents, with companies slashing capex further and households bringing discretionary spending forward and shifting savings into dollars and real estate assets. On the supply side, robust IP contrasted with a sharp decline in agriculture, but overall the dichotomy of sluggish demand and relatively resilient output indicators suggests that growth continued to rebalance towards net exports. Looking into 2015, we expect net exports and state spending to cushion the impact from deep cutbacks in consumption and private investment, but a mild recession looks hard to escape.
Vladimir Kolychev
VTB Capital analyst

ruble, Rosstat

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