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RUB: in the red again


On Friday, RUB had a weak opening with USDRUB printing a high of 47.50. The sluggish performance of crude oil the day before ignited the price action at the start, which was further amplified by the deteriorating market liquidity amid elevated concerns that households' bid for hard currency might still be intact. Overall, trading volumes in the Russian exchange market remained subdued: MICEX recorded just USD 4.4bn of USDRUB flow on Friday. At the end of the day, RUB lost 1.6% against USD (47.31) and surrendered 1.8% to EUR (59.10). Meanwhile, EM FX index firmed 0.2–0.3% on Friday with ZAR up 1.1%, whilst TRY and MXN advanced 0.5%. In addition, NOK gained 0.6% vs. USD as crude oil bounced around 3.0% on Friday, while other commodity-based currencies traded on a stronger footing as well. Today, we think FX repo and deposit auctions will be in focus: if the latter are successful, RUB might get some support. Otherwise, export could increase the hard currency selling this week amid the taxes ahead.

Maxim Korovin, Tatyana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst


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