The behaviour of the Russian currency is to be in focus this week, after persistent pressure last week pushed the CBR to threaten ad hoc interventions, while on the data front we shall be watching for second tier releases on international trade and budget execution. All CE3 countries are scheduled to publish flash 3Q14 GDP estimates as well October CPI prints.
Pressure on RUB persisted throughout last week amid growing signs of an increase in the dollarisation of household savings. This, with other signs of rising devaluation expectations, prompted the CBR to intervene verbally and threaten ad hoc interventions in order to control the risks to financial stability. This is a welcome change in rhetoric, but we remain concerned that the market might want to test the regulator’s willingness to act and so await bold ad hoc FX interventions to break the negative loop of
As for local news flow, we look to the
Elsewhere in CEEMEA, all CE3 countries are expected to present flash 3Q14 GDP estimates as well as October inflation reports. Inflation remains subdued across the region amid still limited demand pressures, low inflation in trade partners as well as positive