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RUB: a moderate bounce

On Friday, RUB traded on a stronger footing as did EM FX peers. Specifically, RUB gained near 0.5% against USD having closed at 40.65. The crude oil rebound might have helped RUB trading, but we think that at the moment RUB is trading more on tactical factors rather than fundamental ones. Its marked underperformance in September-October has left the market with no more bullets to play against RUB, as the lion's share of participants are positioned in the same direction (against RUB). Hence, several market players are now likely deciding to take profits or hold position, but not add to it. Meanwhile, we highlight that the EM FX index firmed 0.3-0.4% against USD on Friday with TRY up 0.7%, while MXN and ZAR gained around 0.3%. At the same time, commodity-based currencies lagged – specifically, NOK closed flat on Friday. This morning, RUB weakened around 30 kopecks with USDRUB trading at 40.90, whilst BASKET picked up to 46.00 (still below the CBR's FX interventions threshold).
Maxim Korovin, Tatyana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst


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