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RUB: pressure persists


Yesterday, RUB kicked off on a stronger footing with the lowest USDRUB print at 39.80 seen around noon. However, later RUB failed to secure the gains: optically it closed flat against USDRUB (40.11) and the BASKET (44.98). We use ‘optically’, because on Wednesday BASKET picked up to the 45.00 mark after 6pm, i.e. when the CBR was off the market. In contrast, yesterday BASKET moved up to the 44.95 level during main trading hours, so the regulator continued its FX interventions. Meanwhile, we highlight that Brent crude oil slipped 3.2% to USD 88.80/bbl, which was one of the key drivers of RUB’s weakness. In addition, EM FX ended lower against USD — excluding Asian currencies (not actively traded during the US hours), EM FX index tumbled 0.3% vs. US Dollar. NOK also weakened near 0.3%. Globally, the reaction to the Fed’s dovish minutes of the September meeting, the IMF downgrades of global economic growth projections and concerns about Ebola, as well as the growing recession risks for Germany and the rest of the Eurozone provided the main focus for investors.

Maxim Korovin, Tatyana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst

ruble, basket

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