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Weekly CPI – inflation reached 8.0% YoY as of 29 September, a 3-year high

Rosstat reports that CPI added 0.65% over 1-29 September, with average daily inflation almost flat at 0.024% during 23-29 September. Component-wise, the increases in heating bills (+0.8% WoW), the prices of cucumbers (4.5%), tomatoes (3.5%), potatoes (1.7%), chicken (0.6%) and gasoline (0.2%), as well as meat-related goods and cheese, were the key inflation drivers last week.

Last week seasonal deflation in fruit and vegetables finished with prices on potatoes, cabbage, onion, cucumber and tomatoes gained, adding more than a half of registered WoW inflation (near 10 vs. 17bp). There was also a one-off hike in heating tariffs that contributed around 5bp.

On a positive note, inflation across meat categories started to ease. Particularly, weekly pork inflation abated to 0.4%, the lowest since early August.

Hence, this generally fits our view about earlier inflationary impact from the food ban; and we expect the monthly report to show headline CPI at 8.0% and some signs of FX pass-through on core measures (as seen in inflation PMI sub-indices).

Daria Isakova, Vladimir Kolychev
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, inflation

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