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RUB: following the common trend

Yesterday, RUB weakened 0.5-0.6% against both USD (38.66) and BASKET (43.56). The trading session was quite volatile as USDRUB moved between 38.45 and 38.70 during the day. The drop in the price of crude oil was clearly one of the key drivers behind the USDRUB performance. Hence, Brent dropped 1.8% to USD 95.20 yesterday. However, we also highlight that the EM FX index slipped 0.5%, with ZAR and BRL closing down 0.7-0.8%. At the same time, EM FX slipped late in the evening, while there was pressure on RUB right from the morning. So, in that sense RUB has underperformed, but in the end RUB settled the score with EM FX peers. The main question for RUB is the MET payment due on 25 September. Given the elevated USDRUB trading levels, we do not rule out that some exporters might start accumulating the needed rouble liquidity as early as today.
Maxim Korovin, Tatiana Zueva
VTB Capital analyst

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