The major equity markets started the week on a defensive note, with sentiment dented by the latest Chinese economic data which highlighted a slowdown in the growth of industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment. It is not clear whether the Chinese authorities will necessarily respond with fresh fiscal measures or an easier monetary stance in order to secure the 7.5% official GDP growth target. The OECD published its interim economic assessment yesterday and noted that global economic growth was continuing at a moderate pace, although it did warn that the economy is “expanding unevenly”. The OECD sees growth as being particularly weak in the Eurozone, “which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand.” The OECD expects US GDP growth to lead the way in 2015, with growth forecast to be at 3.1%. Yesterday’s US economic data was mixed, with the NY Fed general business conditions index jumping to its highest level since 2009 in September, though US industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1% MoM in August. Today’s economic data focus is on UK CPI inflation, the German ZEW survey and the US PPI.
Alexey Zabotkin, Neil MacKinnon, Akin Tuzun, Sergey Galkin, Ilya Piterskiy
VTB Capital analyst
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