The inflationary impact of the food ban is gradually solidifying and reached 0.12pp as of the start of the autumn (with 0.05pp from chicken prices alone, which have jumped 4% since 4 August and registered an annual gain of almost 20% as of 1 September). We note that price gains across eggs, tomatoes, heating and sugar shaved around 0.14pp from the annual increase of the headline CPI over August.
Given that the growth in headline CPI over 25 August – 1 September growth stood at 0.1% and during 1 September prices picked up by 0.02pp, we believe that full-August inflation was at least 0.23% MoM that translated into 7.6% YoY.
Looking to the autumn, we believe that inflation will remain elevated, fuelled by rising prices for food products on the back of restricted imports, especially meat, fish, dairy and (in late autumn) fruits. Overall, the price inflation in these categories might add about 1.7-1.8pp to the headline CPI in the coming months, we estimate.