Yesterday, we published our regular Russia Early Indicators, in which we summarised the results of the PMIs and the first statistics for August. We provide key extracts from the report below.
Early activity indicators suggest slightly better than expected dynamics on the supply side, which might be linked to i) the delayed effect from the massive increase in defence orders, ii) the start of Power of Siberia pipeline construction; and iii) ongoing import substitution. Although the former two offer slight upside risk to our downbeat 2014 growth outlook, the fact local private demand continues to deteriorate makes sustainable recovery a distant prospect. Meantime, cost inflation picked up again on food, which will further eat into household incomes and continue to dampen their spending power.
Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst
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