Reacceleration across manufacturing industries was the main positive surprise last month. A technically favourable statistical base played a hand, but it cannot explain the entire upturn. Industry-wide solid output gains across steel (up 6-8% YoY) and surging rail car production (up 20-30%) suggest continued Ukrainian import substitution. Also of note was that car production remained remarkably resilient, at 3.3% YoY growth against the backdrop of double digit decline in car sales, which is reflective of rising inventories and flags potential output cutbacks.
Across other (non-manufacturing) sectors, electricity production, which rose back above the waterline, was a marginal support (adding 0.2pp to the headline IP), but a 10% reduction in gas and oil output shaved near 0.2pp off the number