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Inflation - disinflation kicks in - but supply-side risks blur the outlook again

The headline CPI expectedly ticked down to 7.5% YoY, marking its first decline since the start of the year.

The slower indexation of regulated tariffs was the main disinflationary driver last month, while food inflation remained elevated and core inflation was stable amid the waning pass-through from a weaker currency. Looking ahead, the robust harvest this season would have suggested a benign outlook, if not for the raft of looming food import bans that pose risks to the pace of disinflation over the coming quarters. For now, we are putting our inflation forecast under review before we explore deeper the potential impact from import restrictions.

For more details, see our Russia CPI in July; disinflation kicks in, but supply-side risks blur the outlook again, published yesterday.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

Russia, inflation

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