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Weekly CPI – annual inflation drops to 7.5% as of 28 July


Rosstat reports that the weekly CPI gain was 0.03% WoW last week, down from 0.13% the previous week. Component-wise, the slowdown was to a significant extent attributed to moderating price gains for eggs (+0.1%), gasoline (+0.3%) and chicken (+0.9%); deflation across vegetables also gathered pace.

Although still elevated, it is encouraging to see food inflation starting to moderate, particularly across the categories that have recently been the main push factors (eggs and chicken). This likely heralds a turnaround for food inflation and, other things being equal, we would expect significant food disinflation over the next 6–12 months, particularly in light of a robust harvest outlook both locally and globally. However, recent initiatives to restrain food imports from different regions (starting from Ukraine and Moldova, to Poland and the US) are concerning, and, depending on the measures actually implemented, might potentially delay disinflation. We shall closely monitor developments on this front in the coming days/week and adjust our inflation forecasts accordingly.

On CPI for July, we believe that it is likely to remain at 7.5% YoY, as was the case as of 28 July.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, inflation

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