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Weekly CPI – annual inflation sticky around 7.6% as of 21 July

Rosstat reports that the weekly CPI gain was 0.13% WoW last week, flat vs. the previous week. Not much has changed component-wise, with eggs (+2.2%), gasoline (+0.4%) and chicken (+1.2%) remaining the key push factors, and the deflation in vegetables offsetting them.

Food inflation remains elevated as the last aftereffects of the supply shock on the pork market continue to seep through (into chicken inflation). Most of the impact of this shock, however, is already behind us and food inflation is likely to turn the corner soon. The robust harvest outlook, both locally and globally, suggests that food disinflation might even surprise on the upside, although it could take at least several months before the new harvest starts to affect retail prices.

As of 21 July, we estimate headline CPI dipped slightly below 7.6% YoY, and it is likely to finish the month in the 7.5-7.6% range, we believe.

Daria Isakova, Vladimir Kolychev
VTB Capital analyst


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