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RUB: correction mode

Yesterday, RUB regained lost ground, rising 0.7% vs. USD (34.96) and 0.9% against BASKET (40.42). It started trading on a stronger footing right in the morning, so the whole session was decent. We noted somewhat increased hard currency selling from exporters, which have likely been accumulating liquidity for Friday’s MET payments. Meanwhile, the EM FX index firmed only 0.2-0.3% against USD, with TRY posting the best performance and closing up 0.6%. Thus, the performance gap between RUB and the rest of the EM FX space narrowed gradually, but the political premium is still there. As we argued at the beginning of the week, the most likely scenario for RUB in the coming days is consolidation in the 34.80-35.20 range. Apparently, the chances of it scratching the lower bound of the range are now considerable. In particular, RUB might get further support from the CBR, if the regulator sends a hawkish message to the market.
Maxim Korovin, Anton Nikitin
VTB Capital analyst


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