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Output & Demand - June


Yesterday, Rosstat unveiled its regular monthly package of statistics for June. The key highlights are as follows.

The unemployment rate remained at 4.9% (vs. 4.9% in April and 5.0% BBG), while SA UR was a little down to 5.1%.

Fixed capital investments: +0.5% YoY (vs. -2.6% and -1.8%).

Retail sales: +0.7% YoY (vs. +2.1% and +1.8%).

Construction: +1.2% YoY (vs. -5.4% a month ago).

New houses: +35.3% YoY (vs. +35.8% a month ago).

Real wages growth: +1.7% YoY (vs. +2.1% (revised down from 5.0%) and +4.0%).

The economy entered the summer with the long-awaited convergence between demand and supply, as the abnormal strength in manufacturing output faded, while domestic demand remained lacklustre as consumer spending slowed sharply. On the brighter side, a pick-up in the homebuilding industry underpinned investment and employment indicators in June. This, coupled with a positive contribution from import substitution, is likely to have brought about a milder slowdown in 2Q14 than we initially expected. The outlook for the rest of the year, however, remains challenging.

Vladimir Kolychev, Daria Isakova
VTB Capital analyst

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