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Weekly CPI – inflation crawled up to a peak of 7.8% YoY by the end of June

According to the latest weekly report, the CPI added 0.56% during June, with the average daily price growth edging up slightly to 0.021% from the previous week and staying above last year's daily inflation in the corresponding week (+0.010%). In terms of components, inflation last week was led by eggs (+2.0%), chicken (+0.9% WoW), gasoline (+0.3%) and sugar (+0.6%).

It just so happens that this weekly CPI report covers all the days in the month before the monthly report is out. Hence, we can state with greater confidence that during June the headline CPI ticked up 0.2pp to 7.8% YoY. According to the shortened list of goods and services (67 in the weekly report vs. 530+ items in the monthly report), the major contributors to this acceleration were prices on meat-related items (+0.12pp) and eggs (+0.08pp), while deepening deflation across vegetables was the main disinflationary force.

It is important that the impact from the shock on the pork market started to stabilise in June and is likely to fade completely in the weeks to come. At the same time, gasoline prices printed a visible gain last week (+0.3%, the strongest since late March 2014) following accidents across several refineries. However, this is likely to prove a one-off and, in any case, its impact is unlikely to pose significant threat for the outlook on 2H14.

Daria Isakova, Vladimir Kolychev
VTB Capital analyst

CPI, inflation

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