CPI added 0.41% during the first 23 days of June, with the average daily price growth flat on the previous week at 0.015% (but slightly above last year's daily inflation in the corresponding week).
In terms of components, inflation last week was led by chicken (+1.4% WoW), eggs (+1.3%), gasoline (+0.2%) and sugar (+1.0%).
Although the price gain on meat-related goods (in particular beef, pork and chicken) bounced back slightly last week after a significant moderation the week before, we still see the spill-over effect from the shock on the pork market following a firm downward trend. Also, blips in the growth of gasoline and eggs prices are unlikely to translate into a persistent acceleration.
At the same time, vegetable inflation continued to compensate for heightened food inflation pressures. Thus, the slower increase in potato, cabbage and onion prices has shaved 0.29pp from the headline YoY reading since the end of 1Q14 (in other words, without it the headline CPI would have hit the 8.0% mark now).
In the meantime, according to our calculations the YoY CPI growth stood at 7.7% as of 23 June and is likely to remain there through the end of the month. Given strong disinflation ahead (the new tariff policy alone, implemented since this year, is set to shave 0.6pp from the headline CPI annual growth) we treat the current levels as a peak and are reiterating our YE14 forecast of 5.8%.